Forecasting Food Price Inflation in Developing Countries with Inflation Targeting Regimes: the Colombian Case

Many developing countries are adopting inflation targeting regimes to guide monetary policy decisions. In such countries the share of food in the consumption basket is high and policy makers often employ total inflation (as opposed to core inflation) to set inflationary targets. Therefore, central banks need to develop reliable models to forecast food inflation. Our literature review suggests that little has been done in the construction of models to forecast short-run food inflation in developing countries. We develop a model to improve short-run food inflation forecasts in Colombia. The model disaggregates food items according to economic theory and employs Flexible Least Squares given the presence of structural changes in the inflation series. We compare the performance of this new model to current models employed by the central bank. Next, we apply econometric methods to combine forecasts from alternative models and test whether such combination outperforms individual models. Our results indicate that forecasts can be improved by classifying food basket items according to unprocessed, processed and food away from home and by employing forecast combination techniques.Food Inflation, Time Series,

Topological features of hydrogenated graphene

Hydrogen adatoms are one of the most the promising proposals for the functionalization of graphene. Hydrogen induces narrow resonances near the Dirac energy, which lead to the formation of magnetic moments. Furthermore, they also create local lattice distortions which enhance the spin-orbit coupling. The combination of magnetism and spin-orbit coupling allows for a rich variety of phases, some of which have non trivial topological features. We analyze the interplay between magnetism and spin-orbit coupling in ordered arrays of hydrogen on graphene monolayers, and classify the different phases that may arise. We extend our model to consider arrays of adsorbates in graphene-like crystals with stronger intrinsic spin-orbit couplings.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure

El XXVI Festival Internacional de Teatro Hispano

El XXVI Festival Internacional de Teatro Hispano (dirigido por Mario Ernesto Sánchez; patrocinado por Teatro Avante, American Airlines y otras empresas), del 7 al 24 de julio de 2011, rindió tributo a Chile, de donde vinieron dos compañías dramáticas. El afiche del Festival fue diseñado por Jaime Ferrer, de Santiago de Chile; y el Premio a una Vida de Dedicación a las Artes Escénicas, fue otorgado a Delfina Guzmán, también chilena. El Componente Educativo, dirigido por la Dra. Beatriz Rizk, ofreció una convención de dos días, en colaboración con la Latin American Theatre Review, durante la cual distinguidos estudiosos del teatro hispánico presentaron ponencias y disertaron. Una de las sesiones estuvo enteramente dedicada a la figura de George Woodyard, quien dirigió la mencionada revista por muchos años: en ella participaron Jorge Huerta, Adam Versenyi, Jackie Bixler, Stuart Day (actual editor del Latin American Theater Review), Jean Graham-Jones, Kirsten Nigro y la propia Beatriz Rizk. Esta última dirigió, además, la lectura dramatizada de dos obras chilenas (El coordinador, de Benjamín Galemiri y Carolina, de Isidora Aguirre), y presentó su libro Imaginando un continente: Utopía, democracia y neoliberalismo en el teatro latinoamericano

A POESIA E DISPOSITIVOS LITERÁRIOS COMO METODOLOGIA QUALITATIVA

This article describes the main contributions of poetic inquiry as a critical qualitative methodology for the social sciences and health sciences. Are first explored the present research trends associated with the use of poetry as a narrative construction form; in a second, the use of specific exercises is analyzed to identify the potential of narrative aesthetics in the construction of alternative subjectivities as a way of recognizing the voice of the research participants. Finally, there is an academic and reflective discussion about the need to use this methodology in the different universities and study centers in Latin America. It can be concluded that poetic research is a critical way of approaching community problems based on the voice of its participants. It is also a methodology that unites researchers and their participants in a generative dialogue, which enhances qualitative research.Este artículo describe las principales contribuciones de la investigación poética (poetic inquiry), como una metodología cualitativa crítica para las ciencias sociales y ciencias de la salud. Así, en primer lugar, se exploran las principales tendencias de investigación asociadas al uso de la poesía como forma narrativa; en un segundo lugar, se analiza el uso de ejercicios concretos para identificar el potencial de la estética narrativa en la construcción de subjetividades alternativas como una forma de reconocer la voz de los participantes de la investigación. En un tercer lugar, se plantea una discusión académica y reflexiva sobre la necesidad de uso de esta metodología en las diferentes universidades y centros de estudio en Latinoamérica. Se puede concluir que la investigación poética es una forma crítica de abordar problemáticas comunitarias a partir de la voz de sus participantes. Asimismo, es una metodología que une a los investigadores y sus participantes en un diálogo generativo, que potencia la investigación cualitativa.Este artigo descreve as principais contribuições da pesquisa poética como uma metodologia qualitativa crítica para ciências sociais e ciências da saúde. Assim, em primeiro lugar, as principais tendências de pesquisa associadas ao uso da poesia como forma narrativa são exploradas; Em segundo lugar, o uso de exercícios específicos é analisado para identificar o potencial da estética narrativa na construção de subjetividades alternativas como forma de reconhecer a voz dos participantes da pesquisa. Em terceiro lugar, há uma discussão acadêmica e reflexiva sobre a necessidade de usar essa metodologia nas diferentes universidades e centros de estudo da América Latina. Pode-se concluir que a pesquisa poética é uma maneira crítica de abordar os problemas da comunidade com base na voz de seus participantes. É também uma metodologia que une pesquisadores e seus participantes em um diálogo generativo, o que melhora a pesquisa qualitativa

A Dynamic Factor Model for the Colombian Inflation

We use a dynamic factor model proposed by Stock and Watson [1998, 1999, 2002a,b] to forecast Colombian inflation. The model includes 92 monthly series observed over the period 1999:01-2008:06. The results show that for short-run horizons, factor model forecasts significantly outperformed the auto-regressive benchmark model in terms of the root mean squared forecast error statistic.Dynamic factor models, static factor models, forecast accuracy. Classification JEL: C13, C33, C53.

Desde el absurdo: La narrativa de Marcio Velez Maggiolo.

Sin resume

Large quantum nonlinear dynamic susceptibility of single-molecule magnets

The nonlinear dynamical response of Mn$_{12}$ single-molecule magnets is experimentally found to be very large, quite insensitive to the spin-lattice coupling constant, and displaying peaks reversed with respect to classical superparamagnets. It is shown that these features are caused by the strong field dependence of the relaxation rate due to the detuning of energy levels between which tunneling takes place. The nonlinear susceptibility technique, previously overlooked, is thus proposed as a privileged probe to ascertain the occurrence of quantum effects in mesoscopic magnetic systems.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure